Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.005729 0.006058 0.006398 0.006778 0.007192 0.007630 0.008128
2026-02-08 0.005157 0.005630 0.006145 0.006749 0.007442 0.008218 0.009158
2026-02-15 0.004812 0.005366 0.005988 0.006744 0.007644 0.008695 0.010029
2026-02-22 0.004500 0.005099 0.005788 0.006646 0.007701 0.008973 0.010650
2026-03-01 0.004250 0.004880 0.005618 0.006559 0.007745 0.009217 0.011225
2026-03-08 0.004079 0.004740 0.005528 0.006554 0.007878 0.009567 0.011949
2026-03-15 0.003836 0.004497 0.005295 0.006350 0.007738 0.009546 0.012162
2026-03-22 0.003723 0.004407 0.005246 0.006374 0.007888 0.009909 0.012922
2026-03-29 0.003645 0.004355 0.005240 0.006449 0.008106 0.010373 0.013859
2026-04-05 0.003516 0.004233 0.005135 0.006386 0.008128 0.010559 0.014396
2026-04-12 0.003422 0.004151 0.005078 0.006381 0.008227 0.010857 0.015119
2026-04-19 0.003318 0.004049 0.004990 0.006329 0.008253 0.011046 0.015684
2026-04-26 0.003285 0.004043 0.005030 0.006456 0.008547 0.011657 0.016994
2026-05-03 0.003198 0.003960 0.004963 0.006429 0.008610 0.011919 0.017746
2026-05-10 0.003125 0.003893 0.004914 0.006424 0.008705 0.012233 0.018615
2026-05-17 0.003027 0.003789 0.004810 0.006333 0.008663 0.012321 0.019086
2026-05-24 0.002938 0.003695 0.004715 0.006252 0.008629 0.012420 0.019581
2026-05-31 0.002879 0.003640 0.004674 0.006247 0.008714 0.012718 0.020479
2026-06-07 0.002764 0.003504 0.004513 0.006057 0.008495 0.012488 0.020333
2026-06-14 0.002722 0.003467 0.004493 0.006079 0.008617 0.012849 0.021387
2026-06-21 0.002696 0.003454 0.004505 0.006149 0.008820 0.013365 0.022815
2026-06-28 0.002633 0.003385 0.004436 0.006090 0.008805 0.013490 0.023436
2026-07-05 0.002589 0.003343 0.004402 0.006085 0.008881 0.013782 0.024449